Publications / Other reports / 2005 / 2005:010 Young and Out: An Application of a Prospects-Based Concept of Social Exclusion
Young and Out: An Application of a Prospects-Based Concept of Social Exclusion
Oslo: Økonomisk institutt, Universitetet i Oslo (2005)
We develop a forward-looking empirical concept of social exclusion based on the estimated transition probabilities from a random effects multinominal logit-model. Youths are con-sidered socially excluded if they are currently outside school/work and have a low pre-dicted probability of re-entering in the near future. Implemented on extraordinary rich event history data of compulsory school graduates, we estimate social exclusion among Norwe-gian youths and find that social exclusion is (i) non-cyclical; (ii) rare among teen-agers, ex- cept for immigrant children and individuals with a disadvantaged family background; (iii) more prevalent among young adults in their early twenties; and (iv) independent of gender.